Out of the ordinary :
Out of the ordinary : finding hidden threats by analyzing unusual behavior /
John Hollywood ... [et al.].
- xxx, 155 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm
"RAND National Security Research Division."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 151-155).
This monograph presents a unique approach to "connecting the dots" in intelligence--selecting and assembling disparate pieces of information to produce a general understanding of a threat. Modeled after key thought processes used by successful and proactive problem solvers to identify potential threats, the Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing (ASAP) schema described in this document identifies out-of-the-ordinary, atypical behavior that is potentially related to terror activity; seeks to understand the behavior by putting it into context; generates and tests hypotheses about what the atypical behavior might mean; and prioritizes the results, focusing analysts' attention on the most significant atypical findings. In addition to discussing the schema, the authors describe a supporting conceptual architecture and present specific techniques for identifying and analyzing out-of-the-ordinary information. An appendix presents the scenario for a hypothetical terrorist attack, describes the events leading up to the "attack," and shows how ASAP could have been used to help intelligence analysts identify the threat.
0833035207 0833048171 (electronic bk.) 9780833035202 9780833048172 (electronic bk.)
RAND/MG-126-RC
$27.50 paperback
2003023703
Crime forecasting--United States.
Criminal behavior, Prediction of--United States.
Criminal methods--United States.
Intelligence service--United States.
National security--United States.
Terrorism--Forecasting.
Terrorism--Psychological aspects.
HV6080 / .O97 2004
"RAND National Security Research Division."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 151-155).
This monograph presents a unique approach to "connecting the dots" in intelligence--selecting and assembling disparate pieces of information to produce a general understanding of a threat. Modeled after key thought processes used by successful and proactive problem solvers to identify potential threats, the Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing (ASAP) schema described in this document identifies out-of-the-ordinary, atypical behavior that is potentially related to terror activity; seeks to understand the behavior by putting it into context; generates and tests hypotheses about what the atypical behavior might mean; and prioritizes the results, focusing analysts' attention on the most significant atypical findings. In addition to discussing the schema, the authors describe a supporting conceptual architecture and present specific techniques for identifying and analyzing out-of-the-ordinary information. An appendix presents the scenario for a hypothetical terrorist attack, describes the events leading up to the "attack," and shows how ASAP could have been used to help intelligence analysts identify the threat.
0833035207 0833048171 (electronic bk.) 9780833035202 9780833048172 (electronic bk.)
RAND/MG-126-RC
$27.50 paperback
2003023703
Crime forecasting--United States.
Criminal behavior, Prediction of--United States.
Criminal methods--United States.
Intelligence service--United States.
National security--United States.
Terrorism--Forecasting.
Terrorism--Psychological aspects.
HV6080 / .O97 2004