Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking / (Record no. 600046)
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| 000 -LEADER | |
|---|---|
| fixed length control field | 03502cam a2200409 i 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER | |
| control field | 14779768 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER | |
| control field | RAND |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20200811100937.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | 070322s2007 cau b 000 0 eng |
| 010 ## - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONTROL NUMBER | |
| LC control number | 2007012304 |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER | |
| International Standard Book Number | 0833040391 (pbk. : alk. paper) |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER | |
| International Standard Book Number | 9780833040398 (pbk. : alk. paper) |
| 027 ## - STANDARD TECHNICAL REPORT NUMBER | |
| Standard technical report number | RAND/TR-422-AF |
| 035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER | |
| System control number | (Sirsi) lc511588 |
| 037 ## - SOURCE OF ACQUISITION | |
| Terms of availability | $25.00 |
| Form of issue | paperback |
| 040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE | |
| Original cataloging agency | DLC |
| Transcribing agency | DLC |
| Modifying agency | DLC |
| 043 ## - GEOGRAPHIC AREA CODE | |
| Geographic area code | n-us--- |
| 050 00 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER | |
| Classification number | UB210 |
| Item number | .D388 2007 |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Davis, Paul K., |
| Dates associated with a name | 1943- |
| Relator term | author. |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Theory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc | Paul K. Davis, James P. Kahan. |
| 264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE STATEMENTS | |
| Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture | Santa Monica, CA : |
| Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer | RAND, |
| Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture | 2007. |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION | |
| Extent | xix, 77 pages : |
| Other physical details | illustrations ; |
| Dimensions | 28 cm |
| 336 ## - CONTENT TYPE | |
| Content Type Term | text |
| Content Type Code | txt |
| Source | rdacontent |
| 337 ## - MEDIA TYPE | |
| Media Type Term | unmediated |
| Media Type Code | n |
| Source | rdamedia |
| 338 ## - CARRIER TYPE | |
| Carrier Type Term | volume |
| Carrier Type Code | nc |
| Source | rdacarrier |
| 504 ## - BIBLIOGRAPHY, ETC. NOTE | |
| Bibliography, etc | Includes bibliographical references (p. 71-77). |
| 505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE | |
| Formatted contents note | Introduction -- Uncertainty, Risk, and Choice -- Reconciling Different Approaches to Decisionmaking -- A Framework for High-Level Decision Support -- Examples of New Tools -- Priorities for Investment in Families of Models, Games, and Other Tools -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Issues and Controversies Regarding Effects-Based Operations and the Commanderâ‚‚s Predictive Environment. |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc | This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities. |
| 530 ## - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM AVAILABLE NOTE | |
| Additional physical form available note | Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Command of troops. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Decision making |
| General subdivision | Methodology. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Military planning |
| General subdivision | Decision making. |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Kahan, James P. |
| Relator term | author. |
| 710 2# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME | |
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element | Project Air Force (U.S.). |
| Subordinate unit | Aerospace Force Development Program. |
| 710 2# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME | |
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element | Rand Corporation. |
| 710 1# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME | |
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element | United States. |
| Subordinate unit | Air Force. |
| 856 41 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Link text | Online Access |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR422/">http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR422/</a> |
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