Onward through the fog : uncertainty and management adaptation in systems analysis and design / James S. Hodges with Raymond A. Pyles.

By:

Hodges, James S [author.]

Contributor(s):

Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 1990Description: xi, 32 pages ; 23 cmContent type:

text

Media type:

computer
unmediated

Carrier type:

online resource
volume

ISBN:

0833010735

Subject(s):

Genre/Form:

Electronic books.

LOC classification:

H97 .H59 1990

Online resources:

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Available additional physical forms:

Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format.

Summary: Policy analysis has always involved great uncertainty. Tools have been available for handling some of that uncertainty, but policy analysis work in many fields has fallen into stereotyped problem formulations and analytical approaches. In particular, treatments of uncertainty are typically incomplete and often conceptually wrong. This report argues that these shortcomings produce pervasive systematic biases in analyses. It describes and discusses the common mode of policy analysis and identifies its two main shortcomings--omission of crucial sources of uncertainty and neglect of systems' ability to respond to the unexpected. It categorizes some varieties of uncertainty relevant to policy analysis and presents examples of ways they are commonly represented. Finally, it discusses designing and evaluating systems, and presents a collection of generic strategies for uncertain situations.

Item type:

eBooks

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Title notes ( 6 )

No physical items for this record

"July 1990."

"Project Air Force -- Arroyo Center -- National Defense Research Institute"--Cover.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 29-32).

Policy analysis has always involved great uncertainty. Tools have been available for handling some of that uncertainty, but policy analysis work in many fields has fallen into stereotyped problem formulations and analytical approaches. In particular, treatments of uncertainty are typically incomplete and often conceptually wrong. This report argues that these shortcomings produce pervasive systematic biases in analyses. It describes and discusses the common mode of policy analysis and identifies its two main shortcomings--omission of crucial sources of uncertainty and neglect of systems' ability to respond to the unexpected. It categorizes some varieties of uncertainty relevant to policy analysis and presents examples of ways they are commonly represented. Finally, it discusses designing and evaluating systems, and presents a collection of generic strategies for uncertain situations.

Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format.

Description based on print version record.