Includes bibliographical references and index.

Are We Safe Enough? Measuring and Assessing Aviation Security explains how standard risk analytic and cost-benefit analysis can be applied to aviation security in systematic and easy-to-understand steps. The book evaluates and puts into sensible context the risks associated with air travel, the risk appetite of airlines and regulators and the notion of acceptable risk. It does so by describing the effectiveness, risk reduction and cost of each layer of aviation security, from policing and intelligence to checkpoint passenger screening to arming pilots on the flight deck.

Chapter 1: Asking the Right Questions About Terrorism; How Safe Are We?; Conflating Terrorism and Insurgency; Al-Qaeda Since 2001; ISIS; Are We as Safe as We Are Because of Security Measures?; Disclosed Plots; Undisclosed Plots; Disclosed Minor Plots; Deterrence; How Safe Is Aviation?; Are We Safe Enough?; References; Chapter 2: Evaluating Aviation Security; Aviation Security Costs in the United States; Costs Before 9/11

TSA Costs After 9/11Other Federal Government Costs; Other Direct Costs; Opportunity Costs; Total Costs for Aviation Security; Evaluating Aviation Security: Three Analytic Techniques; Cost per Saved Life; Acceptable Risk; Cost-Benefit Analysis; References; Chapter 3: Layers of Aviation Security: Examining Their Individual Contribution to Risk Reduction; Laying Out the Layers of Security; Assessing and Evaluating the Layers of Security; Stage 1. Terrorists Are Deterred From Attempting an Attack; Stage 2. Terrorists Attempt an Attack, but Are Prevented From Boarding

Stage 3. Terrorists Succeed in Boarding, but Fail to Bring Down or Hijack the AirlinerStage 4. Hijackers Succeed in Taking Over the Airliner, but Fail to Crash it into Their Target; Other Potential Layers; Calculation of Overall Risk Reduction; Sensitivity Analysis; Evaluating the Deterrence and Disruption Estimates: Erring on the Low Side; Substitution Effects: Interactions and Interdependencies Among the Layers; Other Terrorist Threats to Aviation; Adaptive Behavior by Terrorists; Some Comparisons; Other Western Countries; Israel; Security Measures in Place in the US From 1973 to 2001

Security Measures in Place in the US Before 1973Conclusions; References; Chapter 4: Reducing Costs Without Reducing Security: Comparing the Value of Individual Layers; Adding a Security Layer: Installed Physical Secondary Barriers; Comparing the Layers: Three Approaches; Risk Reduction; Cost-Benefit Analysis; The Cost of the Security Measure; The Losses Sustained in a Successful Attack; The Risk Reduction Furnished by the Security Measure; The Probability of an Otherwise-Successful Terrorist Attack Absent All Security Measures; The Benefit-to-Cost Ratio

Evaluating the Comparative Effectiveness of FAMS, FFDO, and IPSBComparing Reductions in Risk; Comparing Cost-Effectiveness: Break-Even Analysis and Benefit-to-Cost Ratio; Federal Air Marshal Service; Installed Physical Secondary Barriers; Flight Deck Resistance Including the Federal Flight Deck Officer Program; Policy Mix: Include IPSB, Double the Budget for FFDOs, Reduce FAMS by 75%; Assessing the Risk Reduction and the Cost-Effectiveness of Other Security Measures; Hardened Cockpit Doors; Passenger and Cabin Crew Resistance; JTTF (Including FBI and Police); Anti-Aircraft Measures

Description based on print version record.

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