"RAND National Defense Research Institute."

"The research for this monograph was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy (ISDP) Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute"--Preface.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 155-171).

A Setting of Great National Security Challenges -- Analysis to Aid Decisionmaking -- Concrete Suggestions for Analysis -- Creating Capability Models -- Finding Suitable Options -- Integrating with Portfolio Analysis -- Appendix A: Subjective Data on Past Studies -- Appendix B: Capabilities-Based Planning -- Appendix C: Other Approaches to Risk Management -- Appendix D: Illustrative Threat-Based Analysis -- Appendix E: A Model That Could Have Been “Simple” -- Appendix F: An Example of Simplified Modeling: The Halt Problem.

Defense analysis can do a better job supporting policymakers dealing with multiple objectives and deep uncertainties. This will involve seeing through the fog with simple analysis and undergirding results with depth as necessary. It will emphasize balancing across objectives and hedging against both uncertainty and disagreement among policymakers. Modern methods for doing so are available but they require displacing some familiar processes and demanding more from analysis. Once decisions are made, analysis should help policymakers explain, convince, and shape implementation guidance with sharpened requirements, forcing functions, and metrics for monitoring, feedback, and adaptation.

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