"RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 45-46).

Introduction -- Resource Allocation, Pattern Analysis, and Systematic Randomness -- Simulation Model of OBP Patrol-Smuggler Interaction -- Findings from the Analysis of the Simulation Model -- Comparison of Border Patrol Stations -- Experimental Design for Evaluating the Contributions of Pattern Analysis and Systematic Randomness -- Conclusions and Recommendations.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting U.S. borders against terrorist threats, criminal endeavors, illegal immigration, and contraband. Unfortunately, due to budgetary and other resource constraints, it cannot “see and be” everywhere at once. In response, the Office of Border Patrol (OBP) is investigating how pattern and trend analysis and systematic randomness can be used to position border security personnel and equipment in the places and at the times they will be most effective. A RAND study examined how these techniques affect interdiction rates, incorporating results from a RAND-developed agent-based simulation model of the interaction of border patrol agents and illegal smugglers. The model allowed an exploration of how interdiction rates differ across thousands of scenarios that vary by the number of patrols, the rate of illegal flow, the size of the border, and the approach OBP takes to using pattern and trend analysis and systematic randomness. The analysis shows how approaches that combine these two techniques yield higher interdiction rates than approaches using either technique alone, and it identifies circumstances in which combined approaches are competitive with perfect surveillance.

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