Spillover from the conflict in Syria : an assessment of the factors that aid and impede the spread of violence /
William G. Young, David Stebbins, Bryan Frederick, Omar Al-Shahery.
- xi, 72 pages : illustrations, maps ; 23 cm
"RAND National Defense Research Institute." "Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense." "This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute"--Preface.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 61-72).
Introduction -- Review of the Literature Concerning Conflict Spillover -- Spillover of the Syrian Conflict into Turkey -- Spillover of the Syrian Conflict into Lebanon -- Spillover of the Syrian Conflict into Iraq -- Spillover of the Syrian Conflict into Jordan -- Conclusions and Recommendations.
All roads lead to Damascus and then back out again, but in different directions. The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from patrons and neighbors is intended to determine the outcome of the conflict between a loose confederation of rebel factions and the regime in Damascus. Instead, this outside support has the potential to perpetuate the existing civil war and to ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shia areas that could reshape the political geography of the Middle East. This report examines the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency in Syria, and then examines how they apply to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan.