implications for the future force era Nichiporuk, Brian 1966- creator author. Arroyo Center Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. Rand Corporation United States Army. text bibliography cau 2005 monographic eng

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xxiv, 111 pages ; 23 cm To help the U.S. Army with force planning for the 2025 era, this study uses the tool of alternative futures analysis. It bounds the future the Army will face by laying out a representative spectrum of different "future worlds" that hopefully illustrate the complete universe of future missions. By mixing and matching possible trends across five key areas (geopolitics, economics, demographics, technology, and environment), six alternative futures are created: "U.S. unipolarity" and "democratic peace" (best cases), "major competitor rising" and "competitive multipolarity" (medium-good cases), "transnational web" (medium-bad case), and "chaos/anarchy" (worst case). After explaining the main features of each future, the study creates an appropriate "Army type" for each, through a three-step process: (1) a representative combat scenario was created for each future, (2) the strategies-to-tasks methodology was used to set out the raw capabilities needed for a given scenario, and (3) the force characteristics and size required to meet the needs presented in the capability statements were formulated. All the needed characteristics were then bundled together to form a basic Army type for a given future. The report concludes with a review and discussion of the common desired characteristics found across the six types. Introduction -- Project Methodology -- Future Trends and the Creation of Alternative Futures -- Describing the Alternative Futures -- Implications for Army Force Planning -- Some Final Thoughts. Brian Nichiporuk. "All of the research for this monograph was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program"--Preface. "RAND Arroyo Center." Includes bibliographical references (p. 109-111). Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format. n-us--- United States. Army Personnel management United States. Army Reorganization Military planning United States United States Foreign relations 2001- Forecasting UA25 .N5 2005 0833037447 (pbk.) 2005001399 http://www.rand.org/publications/MG/MG219/ http://www.rand.org/publications/MG/MG219/ CstmoR 050124 20200811100747.0 rnd000000000111406