02837cam a2200433 i 4500 rnd000000000092794 RAND 951106s1995 caua b 000 0deng d 95008390 0833023306 RAND/MR-558-1-OSD (Sirsi) a380225 $15.00 CstmoR CstmoR a-ch--- a-cc--- DS799 .F45 1995 Feigenbaum, Evan A., 1969- author. Change in Taiwan and potential adversity in the Strait / Evan A. Feigenbaum. Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 1995. xvii, 65 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia unmediated n rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier volume nc rdacarrier "National Defense Research Institute." Includes bibliographical references (p. 63-65). For more than 40 years, the China-Taiwan conflict has effectively institutionalized the outcome of China's 1945-49 civil war. Since 1949, each side of the Taiwan Strait has been ruled by one of the two main parties to that conflict--the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang--and until the mid-1980s the claims of each to represent China's legitimate national government limited flexibility on both sides and rendered real movement in the relationship virtually impossible. Since the mid-1980s, however, Kuomintang authorities have loosened some political restrictions in Taiwan. This shift has produced rapid economic and political developments on the island, the thrust of which is extremely disturbing to China's leadership and which has fundamentally altered the parameters of the Strait conflict. The author foresees a degree of stability in the short to medium term but identifies three potentially destabilizing trends that may pull Taiwan away from any substantive commitment to reunification: the political and social changes favoring a "distinct" Taiwan identity; "Taiwanization" of the ruling Kuomintang; and increasing confidence in Taiwan's ability to leverage wealth, investment, and trade for ambitious foreign policy goals. Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format. Chinese reunification question, 1949- Taiwan Economic conditions. Taiwan Foreign relations. Taiwan Politics and government. Taiwan Social conditions. United States Foreign relations Taiwan. International Security and Defense Policy Center. Rand Corporation. United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense. Online Access http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR558-1.pdf 597218 597218