02648cam a2200421 i 4500001001900000003000500019008004100024010001300065020001500078027001800093035002000111037001100131040001900142043002100161050002100182100003900203245011400242264003700356300003600393336002600429337002600455337002800481338003600509338002700545500002100572504005200593520114000645530005801785588004701843651003901890651005501929651005501984710005102039710002202090710002602112856006902138999001902207rnd000000000093845RAND940504s1994    caub     b    000 0 eng d  a93043121  a0833014846  aRAND/MR-363-A  a(Sirsi) a358437  c$25.00  aCstmoRcCstmoR  aec-----aed-----00aDJK26b.S97 19931 aSzayna, Thomas S.,d1960-eauthor.10aEthnic conflict in Central Europe and the Balkans :ba framework and U.S. policy options /cThomas S. Szayna. 1aSanta Monica, CA :bRAND,c1994.  axvii, 64 pages :bmaps ;c23 cm  atextbtxt2rdacontent  acomputerbc2rdamedia  aunmediatedbn2rdamedia  aonline resourcebcr2rdacarrier  avolumebnc2rdacarrier  a"Arroyo Center."  aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 61-64).  aThis report provides an analytical framework for thinking about the potential for militarized ethnic conflict in the central part of Europe and the Balkans. The report distinguishes between three types of ethnic tensions: (1) a mobilized ethnic group without outside backers, which can escalate to a low-intensity conflict within a specific country; (2) a mobilized ethnic group backed by a neighboring nation-state, which can escalate into an international dispute or border war; and (3) the breakup of federal states made up of ethno-territorial administrative units, which can escalate to armed struggle (a hybrid between a civil war and a war for independence that may escalate into a larger regional war). The report argues that the type of regional ethnic demands is shifting away from outright secession (breakup of states) and toward calls for autonomy. It concludes that U.S. policy should focus on controlling ethnic tensions by limiting their spread, preventing their escalation into militarized conflict, and containing any conflicts that occur. The report ends with some recommendations for the United States and the Army.  aAlso available on the internet via WWW in PDF format.  aDescription based on print version record. 0aEurope, EasternxEthnic relations. 0aEurope, EasternxForeign relationszUnited States. 0aUnited StatesxForeign relationszEurope, Eastern.2 aArroyo Center.bStrategy and Doctrine Program.2 aRand Corporation.1 aUnited States.bArmy.41yOnline Accessuhttp://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR363/  c597933d597933