02736cam a2200421 i 4500 rnd000000000048460 RAND 960212s1991 caua b 000 0 eng d 91209836 0833018248 RAND/N-2945-NA (Sirsi) a190421 $30.00 CstmoR CstmoR a-cc--- HC427.92 .H46 1991 Henry, Donald Putnam, 1957- author. MAGIC, models of aggregate growth in China / Donald Putnam Henry. Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 1991. xiii, 78 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia unmediated n rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier volume nc rdacarrier A RAND note ; 2945 "This research was conducted within RAND's International Economic Policy Program. ... under the auspices of the National Defense Research Institute"--Preface. Includes bibliographical references (p. 77-78). This Note develops three small aggregate models of growth in China. Each of these models is designed to highlight different aspects of China's growth prospects. Model I is a simple capital accumulation model that calculates the rates of population growth, capital formation through savings, and technological progress necessary to meet the economic goals of the Chinese leadership. Model II examines the interactions between the rural and urban sectors of the Chinese economy. The model includes an agricultural sector, a rural manufacturing sector, and an urban manufacturing sector. Model III examines the roles of foreign borrowing and the military sector in economic growth. The models are built with minimal reliance on the reliability, quality, and consistency over time of Chinese economic statistics. The models suggest that sectoral shifts, capital inflows, and military spending are unlikely to change China's economic prospects. Savings and technological progress remain the primary instruments of growth for capital accumulation. Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format. Description based on print version record. China Economic conditions 1976-2000 Econometric models. China Economic policy 1976-2000 Econometric models. Rand Corporation. National Defense Research Institute (U.S.). International Economic Policy Program. United States. Department of Defense. Director of Net Assessment. Rand note ; 2945. Online Access http://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N2945/ 598763 598763