03009cam a2200517 a 4500 rnd000000000111359 RAND 20200811100908.0 031029s2004 caua b 000 0 eng d 2003023703 0833035207 0833048171 (electronic bk.) 9780833035202 9780833048172 (electronic bk.) RAND/MG-126-RC (Sirsi) a491237 $27.50 paperback CstmoR CstmoR n-us--- HV6080 .O97 2004 Out of the ordinary : finding hidden threats by analyzing unusual behavior / John Hollywood ... [et al.]. Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2004. xxx, 155 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia unmediated n rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier volume nc rdacarrier "RAND National Security Research Division." Includes bibliographical references (p. 151-155). This monograph presents a unique approach to "connecting the dots" in intelligence--selecting and assembling disparate pieces of information to produce a general understanding of a threat. Modeled after key thought processes used by successful and proactive problem solvers to identify potential threats, the Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing (ASAP) schema described in this document identifies out-of-the-ordinary, atypical behavior that is potentially related to terror activity; seeks to understand the behavior by putting it into context; generates and tests hypotheses about what the atypical behavior might mean; and prioritizes the results, focusing analysts' attention on the most significant atypical findings. In addition to discussing the schema, the authors describe a supporting conceptual architecture and present specific techniques for identifying and analyzing out-of-the-ordinary information. An appendix presents the scenario for a hypothetical terrorist attack, describes the events leading up to the "attack," and shows how ASAP could have been used to help intelligence analysts identify the threat. Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format. Crime forecasting United States. Criminal behavior, Prediction of United States. Criminal methods United States. Intelligence service United States. National security United States. Terrorism Forecasting. Terrorism Psychological aspects. Hollywood, John S., 1973- author. Snyder, Diane. author. McKay, Kenneth N. author. Boon, John E., Jr. author. Rand Corporation. National Security Research Division. Rand Corporation. Online Access http://www.rand.org/publications/MG/MG126/ 599181 599181