03423cam a2200445 i 4500 rnd000000000111653 RAND 20200811100913.0 080213s2008 caua 000 0deng d 0833042149 083304589X (electronic bk.) 9780833042149 9780833045898 (electronic bk.) RAND/MG-662-OSD (Sirsi) a517144 $32.00 CstmoR CstmoR n-us--- U153 .D383 2008 Davis, Paul K., 1943- author. Portfolio-analysis methods for assessing capability options / Paul K. Davis, Russell D. Shaver, Justin Beck. Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2008. xxxviii, 163 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia unmediated n rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier volume nc rdacarrier "RAND National Defense Research Institute." Includes bibliographical references (p. 155-163). Introduction -- Background: The Capabilities-Development Process -- A Framework and a Generic Terms of Reference -- Tools to Enable the Framework -- A Notional Example: Global Strike -- A Second Example: Ballistic Missile Defense -- Conclusions and Next Steps -- Appendix A: Joint Capability Areas -- Appendix B: Implications for Systems Engineering and Modeling and Simulation -- Appendix C: RAND's Portfolio-Analysis Tools. This monograph presents and illustrates in some detail an analytical framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews and describes new enabling tools to support capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department of Defense and the military Services. The Building Blocks to Composite Options Tool (BCOT) is used to generate and screen preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) enables users to evaluate in a portfolio-analysis structure those options that pass screening. Variants of the methods can be applied for analysis across capability areas or for strategic-level defense planning, i.e., force planning to establish the overall mix and balance of capabilities. The concepts are illustrated with applications to the capability areas of Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD). Further research is recommended in four areas that promise to have a high payoff for defense planning: analysis cutting across capability areas; strategic-level portfolio analysis; advancing the science of exploratory analysis; and refinement of BCOT and PAT to make them easier to use, understand, modify, and maintain and also to enrich their utility for exploratory analysis and to incorporate new techniques for portfolio analysis developed in the fields of economics and business planning. Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format. Military planning United States Decision making. Shaver, R. D. (Russell D.) author. Beck, Justin. author. National Defense Research Institute (U.S.). Acquisition and Technology Policy Center. Rand Corporation. United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense. Online Access http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG662/ 599318 599318