Studying first-strike stability with knowledge-based models of human decisionmaking / Paul K. Davis.

By:

Davis, Paul K, 1943- [author.]

Contributor(s):

Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 1989Description: xxi, 100 pages : illustrations ; 28 cmContent type:

text

Media type:

computer
unmediated

Carrier type:

online resource
volume

ISBN:

0833009532

Subject(s):

LOC classification:

U263 .D39 1989

Online resources:

Online Access

Available additional physical forms:

Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format.

Summary: First-strike stability depends on the improbability of crises and the improbability that crises would result in first strikes. This study focuses on the latter criterion, which in turn depends on crisis decisionmaking by human beings. The report argues that efforts to understand and improve first-strike stability should be guided by a formal theory of human decisionmaking that accounts for behavioral factors such as mindset, desperation, fatalism, perceptions, and fears. The author identifies three principal mechanisms for improving first-strike stability: (1) improve force-posture stability; (2) review and adjust nuclear policies and doctrine, and the way they are discussed; and (3) improve the likely quality of crisis decisionmaking through efforts involving education, exercises, and staffing.

Item type:

Average rating: 0.0 (0 votes)

Holdings ( 0 )
Title notes ( 7 )

No physical items for this record

"April 1989."

"Project on avoiding nuclear war: managing conflict in the nuclear age."

"RAND/UCLA Center for the Study of Soviet International Behavior."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-100).

First-strike stability depends on the improbability of crises and the improbability that crises would result in first strikes. This study focuses on the latter criterion, which in turn depends on crisis decisionmaking by human beings. The report argues that efforts to understand and improve first-strike stability should be guided by a formal theory of human decisionmaking that accounts for behavioral factors such as mindset, desperation, fatalism, perceptions, and fears. The author identifies three principal mechanisms for improving first-strike stability: (1) improve force-posture stability; (2) review and adjust nuclear policies and doctrine, and the way they are discussed; and (3) improve the likely quality of crisis decisionmaking through efforts involving education, exercises, and staffing.

Also available on the internet via WWW in PDF format.

Description based on print version record.