Prediction Markets [electronic resource] : Fundamentals, Designs, and Applications / by Stefan Luckner, Jan Schröder, Christian Slamka, Markus Franke, Andreas Geyer-Schulz, Bernd Skiera, Martin Spann, Christof Weinhardt.

By:

Luckner, Stefan [author.]

Contributor(s):

Publisher: Wiesbaden : Gabler Verlag, 2012Description: XIV, 141 p. online resourceContent type:

text

Media type:

computer

Carrier type:

online resource

ISBN:

9783834970855

Subject(s):

Genre/Form:

Electronic books.

Additional physical formats: Printed edition:: No titleDDC classification:

381 23

LOC classification:

HF5001-6182.2

Online resources:

Click here to access online

In: Springer eBooksSummary: Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.

Item type:

eBooks

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Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.