000 03502cam a2200409 i 4500
001 14779768
003 RAND
005 20200811100937.0
008 070322s2007 cau b 000 0 eng
010 _a 2007012304
020 _a0833040391 (pbk. : alk. paper)
020 _a9780833040398 (pbk. : alk. paper)
027 _aRAND/TR-422-AF
035 _a(Sirsi) lc511588
037 _c$25.00
_fpaperback
040 _aDLC
_cDLC
_dDLC
043 _an-us---
050 0 0 _aUB210
_b.D388 2007
100 1 _aDavis, Paul K.,
_d1943-
_eauthor.
245 1 0 _aTheory and methods for supporting high level military decisionmaking /
_cPaul K. Davis, James P. Kahan.
264 1 _aSanta Monica, CA :
_bRAND,
_c2007.
300 _axix, 77 pages :
_billustrations ;
_c28 cm
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _aunmediated
_bn
_2rdamedia
338 _avolume
_bnc
_2rdacarrier
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 71-77).
505 0 _aIntroduction -- Uncertainty, Risk, and Choice -- Reconciling Different Approaches to Decisionmaking -- A Framework for High-Level Decision Support -- Examples of New Tools -- Priorities for Investment in Families of Models, Games, and Other Tools -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Issues and Controversies Regarding Effects-Based Operations and the Commanderâ‚‚s Predictive Environment.
520 _aThis report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
530 _aAlso available on the internet via WWW in PDF format.
650 0 _aCommand of troops.
650 0 _aDecision making
_xMethodology.
650 0 _aMilitary planning
_xDecision making.
700 1 _aKahan, James P.
_eauthor.
710 2 _aProject Air Force (U.S.).
_bAerospace Force Development Program.
710 2 _aRand Corporation.
710 1 _aUnited States.
_bAir Force.
856 4 1 _yOnline Access
_uhttp://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR422/
999 _c600046
_d600046